All;

I am wondering if there are any actual statistics/facts on defensive shootings relative to which shot or shots are most likely to actually hit the bad guy; first, third, 1st and 4th or what?

Why do I ask?

Since starting tactical training I am more aware of follow up shots, double-taps, double-tap times and hits on targets, etc.  That got me to wondering if there is information on which rounds actually fired are most likely to hit the target/bad guy?  My double-taps with my 10mm are not that great (approx. 2-3 or 4 seconds or so) and I am to understand that many Tactical Operators prefer the 9mm so their double-taps are bang/bang on target? 

My point?  There seems to be two schools of thought: The above where follow up times are EVERYTHING and my (perhaps "fuzzy" logic) where a considerably more powerful 10mm, if placed reasonably well on the first shot, is more likely to better injury and therefore stop-the-fight potential even if not placed perfectly.  On the other hand if you can't hit a subject with a powerful round under stress, what the hell? 

I am not sure if I am even being clear but if anyone has factual information on this it would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,

Pat

Statistics? For me, this question brings up other things.

1) When I trained with a group of "professionals", cops, firemen and airline pilots, at the start, first shots fired at the beginning of practice, a few would miss their target entirely.

One must practice to create habits such that the first round fired hits near the intended impact point. My instructor said that may be the only shot you get. One should consider oneself to be as good as the first shot fired when arriving at the range.

2) There are different terms, double tap, hammers, controlled pairs. Whatever. To me, the need is to have a grip and stance that gets the gun back on the perp ASAP. Once the sights line up on the target's center of upper chest, fire again, maintaining sight picture.

Two to four seconds is too long between shots, so perhaps, you're trying to send followup shots with unnecessary precision. Our group of shooters strives to empty a magazine into a 4 to 6 inch diameter circle on the target from ten yards away. Tighter circles means one is not firing fast enough.

3) Forget that the 10mm is a "powerful" round. Psychologically, that may lead one to believe it's hard to get back on target. To me, a 10mm is no more difficult to control than a .45 ACP and easier than a .357 Mag J-frame.

Psych yourself when practicing. I actually imagine a loved one is in danger. You may be surprised how strong you can be to bring that gun back on target quickly.

Statistics is about large numbers. You'll be there alone in the fight. Practice to be as best as you can be.

First comment is terminology.  If you are taking 2-4 seconds for a follow up shot, you are shooting controlled pairs, not double-taps. 

A double tap (or hammer) is fired using a flash sight picture once, basically by feel of when the gun returns to the same position.  They are difficult to execute well, and impossible to execute consistently.  Further, since the second shot is fired based on it feeling like the gun position from the original sight picture you cannot articulate clearly where the second shot was actually aimed.  This will be a big issue if you ever end up in court.

A controlled pair follows all the fundamentals of shooting:  sight picture, trigger press, control recoil, repeat.  In practiced shooting of controlled pairs the shooter is acutely aware of the sight picture for each shot.  They may be a bit slower than a double tap, but they are far more effective as a miss has no effect on the threat, while having a large effect on the defender.

The controlled pair is actually a derivation of the double tap.  They originated from the use of FMJ ammo that was less effective.  The mantra is anything that needs shot, needs shot twice.  This is functionally to make up for the lack of efficacy of handgun rounds in general. 

I do agree with harrygunner.  If your splits are running 3-4 seconds, then either your range is excessively long, or you are working towards too much precision.  In defensive shooting you 10 ring is the size of a paper plate, and you distance is 3-7 yards.  If your hits are in an area smaller than a paper plate, you need to speed it up and let the group size grow.

As far as stats...I don't know of any tables I can refer you to right off.  I do know from years of reading Mas Ayoob in American Handgunner, that pistol fights almost never end with one shot.  Most often they end with an empty gun.

For your practice, the focus should be that the first shot, and all follow up shots on on that paper plate.  If they always are, you are good.

One thing we did when practicing in CCW class was to actually shoot with our eyes closed.  First we oriented ourselves to the target 5' & 7', then shot some doubles.  We only shot on typing paper sized targets and it was a good drill where you weren't focused on sights.

"Practiced Proficiency" and knowing your gun(functions, reloads, clearing making safe) go a long ways in reactions to your environment!

I've gone in exactly the opposite direction.  I use a very relaxed grip, and also a low grip, so I get more muzzle rise, and slower recovery between shots than most people get.  I also like very powerful rounds.  All of those factors produce slower recovery times, but I accept that.  My focus is rather on trying to make each shot as accurate as I can, and accept that I need to make each shot count, because I probably won't get many shots off.   That philosophy is one reason that I have been carrying my S&W69 (.44mag 5-shot 4-1/4" L-Frame revolver) most of the time lately, instead of my 10mm 1911 ... the even slower recovery time of the .44mag, the slower reload time, the smaller capacity, and the time required to manually cock the hammer between each shot is just less of a disadvantage to me than it would be to most people.  (I suspect that I may be the only 1911 owner who, in the course of shooting more than 1000 rounds through it, has never emptied a mag as quickly as I can pull the trigger ... it just has never seemed like something I have wanted to do.)

I don't recall ever doing a full mag dump.  Won't swear I haven't, but it doesn't ring a bell.

Of course, my 1911 holds 17+1, so dumping a full mag would be a bit more brutal than for those single stack guys.

Quote from: sqlbullet on November 03 2014 02:07:13 PM MST
[...]
Of course, my 1911 holds 17+1, so dumping a full mag would be a bit more brutal than for those single stack guys.

Doesn't having a double-stack make it a 2011?

No.

A 2011 is a steel + polymer wide body 1911 style gun, made by STI/SVI.  My gun is a Para frame, which is all steel.  The only parts on my gun not interchangeable with a standard 1911 are the grips, the mag release and the trigger.

In training, are some saying they won't shoot a magazine's worth of rounds?

I show up for multiple hour sessions with my 1911, at least five magazines and a 1000 rounds in an ammo can. We easily shoot 300 rounds in a single practice session. Running through magazines while maintaining impact precision is important.

Maybe I mis-read.

Quote from: harrygunner on November 03 2014 07:02:26 PM MST
In training, are some saying they won't shoot a magazine's worth of rounds?

If you're referring to my post, in most of my range sessions, I usually shoot up the 8 rounds in my carry mag (plus the chambered round I've been carrying since the last range session), then I shoot the 8 rounds in my first reload mag, and finally I shoot the 8 rounds in my 2nd reload mag, total of 1+8+8+8 = 25 rounds.  But I generally shoot slowly, with perhaps 3 or 4 seconds at least between shots ... I've never emptied a mag as fast as I can pull the trigger, or done any doubletaps.  Someone hearing my shooting would think I was shooting a revolver, and cocking it between every shot.  Or even that I was shooting a single-shot gun.

Quote from: Mike_Fontenot on November 04 2014 07:23:59 AM MST

Quote from: harrygunner on November 03 2014 07:02:26 PM MST
In training, are some saying they won't shoot a magazine's worth of rounds?

If you're referring to my post, in most of my range sessions, I usually shoot up the 8 rounds in my carry mag (plus the chambered round I've been carrying since the last range session), then I shoot the 8 rounds in my first reload mag, and finally I shoot the 8 rounds in my 2nd reload mag, total of 1+8+8+8 = 25 rounds.  But I generally shoot slowly, with perhaps 3 or 4 seconds at least between shots ... I've never emptied a mag as fast as I can pull the trigger, or done any doubletaps.  Someone hearing my shooting would think I was shooting a revolver, and cocking it between every shot.  Or even that I was shooting a single-shot gun.

Yes...To be clear, Mike and I were talking about doing a mag-dump.  Aka firing the gun blindly as fast as you can gang-banger style.

I will usually burn 100-200 rounds in a range session.  I rarely load a mag full in such a session.  5 rounds, reload, then 5 more.  Occassionally I will set up a drill that is meant to eat one or two full mags, but usually not.

Thank you all very much.

After reading these nice responses it has helped me simplify what I am trying to ask:

"Is one more likely to hit with the first shot or follow up shots, or is there no statistical difference?"

Pat

The stress levels that you encounter during a confrontation and the way you react to those stressors can affect the motor skill sets to the point where you can miss or hit...

You usually will react and push more just like you train for an event...As you work on your proficiency, those fine motor skills will better serve you as you deal with a situation.  There are no guarantees, only preparedness to assess the threat and quickly acting, to the situation bring the skills into action.

Quote from: Buckeye 50 on November 04 2014 07:55:46 AM MST

"Is one more likely to hit with the first shot or follow up shots, or is there no statistical difference?"

I suspect that varies from person to person.

For anyone who hasn't fully gotten his flinch at bay, the first shot is likely to be the best by far, and every shot after that is badly flinched, often getting worse and worse with each subsequent shot.  A flinch makes all other sources of error pale by comparison.  If you have a flinch, and if you've ever gotten a "click" when you were expecting a "bang", then you know how a bad flinch can keep you from being able to hit the broad side of a barn.

But other people, who are able to keep their flinch at bay, may tend to settle down on followup shots, and shoot more accurately than on the first one.

Quote from: Buckeye 50 on November 04 2014 07:55:46 AM MST
"Is one more likely to hit with the first shot or follow up shots, or is there no statistical difference?"

Dunno.

But, you are much, much more likely to stop the threat with a handgun if you hit them twice.